Land Management in the Earth System: An Overlooked Driver of Temperature Extremes in Low-Emissions Scenarios
Abstract
Land management affects temperature extremes through modifications of albedo, evapotranspiration and the carbon cycle. Recent studies have shown that these effects are large, in particular at regional scale and for low-emissions scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of new findings in this area, with a focus on the following topics: Land radiative management from surface albedo modifications in cities and agricultural areas (Seneviratne et al. 2018, Nature Geoscience), effects of irrigation on temperature extremes (Thiery et al. 2017, JGR; Hirsch et al. 2017, JGR), land use changes in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and relevance for the development of low-emissions scenarios (e.g. for 1.5°C or 2°C global warming; Seneviratne et al. 2018, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A.; Hirsch et al. 2018, Earth's Future). The latter analyses show in particular that biogeophysical effects of land management are generally not accounted for in IAMs, potentially affecting the assessment of trajectories for ambitious-mitigation scenarios and their relevance for changes in extremes and regional impacts.
References: Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2018: Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5. Seneviratne, S.I. et al., 2018: Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5° C. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376 : 20160450. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450 Hirsch, A., Guillod, B., et al. 2018: Biogeophysical impacts of land-use change on climate extremes in low-emission scenarios: Results from HAPPI-Land. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1002/2017EF000744. Hirsch, A., et al. 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Thiery, W., et al., 2017: Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD025740.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.B53A..08S
- Keywords:
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- 0402 Agricultural systems;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE