Causes of distal volcano-tectonic seismicity inferred from hydrothermal modeling
Abstract
Distal volcano-tectonic (dVT) seismicity typically precedes eruption at long-dormant volcanoes by days to years. Precursory dVT seismicity may reflect magma-induced fluid-pressure pulses that intersect critically stressed faults. We explored this hypothesis using an open-source magmatic-hydrothermal code that simulates multiphase fluid and heat transport over the temperature range 0 to 1200 °C. We calculated fluid-pressure changes caused by a small (0.04 km3) intrusion and explored the effects of flow geometry (channelized vs. radial flow), magma devolatilization rates (0-15 kg/s), and intrusion depths (5 and 7.5 km, above and below the brittle-ductile transition). Magma and host-rock permeabilities were key controlling parameters and we tested a wide range of permeability (k) and permeability anisotropies (kh/kv), including k constant, k(z), k(T), and k(z, T, P) distributions, examining a total of 1600 realizations to explore the relevant parameter space. Propagation of potentially causal pressure changes (ΔP ≥ 0.1 bars) to the mean dVT location (6 km lateral distance, 6 km depth) was favored by channelized fluid flow, high devolatilization rates, and permeabilities similar to those found in geothermal reservoirs (k 10- 16 to 10- 13 m2). For channelized flow, magma-induced thermal pressurization alone can generate cases of Δ P ≥ 0.1 bars for all permeabilities in the range 10- 16 to 10- 13 m2, whereas in radial flow regimes thermal pressurization causes Δ P < 0.1 bars for all permeabilities. Changes in distal fluid pressure occurred before proximal pressure changes given modest anisotropies (kh/kv 10-100). Invoking k(z,T,P) and high, sustained devolatilization rates caused large dynamic fluctuations in k and P in the near-magma environment but had little effect on pressure changes at the distal dVT location. Intrusion below the brittle-ductile transition damps but does not prevent pressure transmission to the dVT site.
- Publication:
-
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
- Pub Date:
- October 2017
- DOI:
- 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.07.011
- Bibcode:
- 2017JVGR..345...98C