Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, China, and the surrounding area
Abstract
Taiyuan is a city in Shanxi Province, China, and possesses serious seismic hazard. In this study, we constructed a time-dependent seismic hazard model for Taiyuan and the surrounding area based on several major-earthquake seismogenic structures for which historical and paleoseismic event data were available. With the time-dependent model, we calculated the distribution of peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in the next 50 years in Taiyuan and the surrounding area, and compared the results with those calculated using the time-independent model. The results showed that the entire area around Taiyuan has a higher seismic hazard with the time-dependent model than that with the time-independent model. The Jiaocheng and Hengshan faults have much higher seismic hazard. Applying the model only to Taiyuan showed that the city has higher seismic hazard with the time-dependent model than that with the time-independent model. In particular, in the western part of Taiyuan, the seismic hazard is quite high because of the proximity of the area to the Jiaocheng Fault.
- Publication:
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Journal of Seismology
- Pub Date:
- July 2017
- DOI:
- 10.1007/s10950-016-9633-1
- Bibcode:
- 2017JSeis..21..749L
- Keywords:
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- Taiyuan;
- Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment;
- Paleoearthquake;
- Jiaocheng Fault