Reproducing the Magnetic Field of Near-Earth ICMEs
Abstract
Understanding the magnetic profile of an ICME is critical for predicting its potential effects near Earth. Kay et al. (2017) introduced the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), which uses the results of a coronal CME deflection and rotation model to orient a simple Lundquist force-flux rope, which is then propagated over a synthetic spacecraft. This work showed the potential of the FIDO model for predicting ICME magnetic field on roughly hourly time scales, and that the in situ profiles are very sensitive to precise location and orientation of the ICME flux rope. We expand upon this work with a recent study of 45 STEREO-era near-Earth CMEs and consider the circular flux rope (Nieves-Chinchilla et al. 2016) in addition to the Lundquist flux rope. We quantitatively analyze the goodness-of-fit of the FIDO fits and determine the circumstances under which the FIDO model performs best. Finally, we explore the limitations of the flux rope model itself to reproduce the data, versus our ability to determine the appropriate values of its free parameters.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMSH34B..03K
- Keywords:
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- 2134 Interplanetary magnetic fields;
- INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS;
- 7514 Energetic particles;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY;
- 7959 Models;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7984 Space radiation environment;
- SPACE WEATHER