Food, energy, and water in an era of disappearing snow
Abstract
Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying more than 65% of the water used for irrigated agriculture, energy production (both hydropower and thermal), and municipal and industrial uses. The importance of snow to western agriculture is demonstrated by the fact that most snow monitoring is performed by the US Department of Agriculture. In a paper published in 2005, we showed that roughly 70% of monitoring sites showed decreasing trends through 2002. Now, with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US show declines through 2016, of which 33% are significant (vs 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. Averaged across the western US, the decline in total April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15-30% or 25-50 km3, comparable in volume to the West's largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead. In the absence of rapid reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, these losses will accelerate; snow losses on this scale demonstrate the necessity of rethinking water storage, policy, and usage.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMGC31D1027M
- Keywords:
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- 0402 Agricultural systems;
- BIOGEOSCIENCES;
- 0495 Water/energy interactions;
- BIOGEOSCIENCES;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY