Physical and Biological Regulation of Carbon Sequestration in Tidal Marshes

The rate of carbon sequestration in tidal marshes is regulated by complex feedbacks among biological and physical factors including the rate of sea-level rise (SLR), biomass production, tidal amplitude, and the concentration of suspended sediment. We used the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) to explore the effects on C-sequestration across a wide range of permutations of these variables. C-sequestration increased with the rate of SLR to a maximum, then down to a vanishing point at higher SLR when marshes convert to mudflats. An acceleration in SLR will increase C-sequestration in marshes that can keep pace, but at high rates of SLR this is only possible with high biomass and suspended sediment concentrations. We found that there were no feasible solutions at SLR >13 mm/yr for permutations of variables that characterize the great majority of tidal marshes, i.e., the equilibrium elevation exists below the lower vertical limit for survival of marsh vegetation. The rate of SLR resulting in maximum C-sequestration varies with biomass production. C-sequestration rates at SLR=1 mm/yr averaged only 36 g C m-2 yr-1, but at the highest maximum biomass tested (5000 g/m2) the mean C-sequestration reached 399 g C m-2 yr-1 at SLR = 14 mm/yr. The empirical estimate of C-sequestration in a core dated 50-years overestimates the theoretical long-term rate by 34% for realistic values of decomposition rate and belowground production. The overestimate of the empirical method arises from the live and decaying biomass contained within the carbon inventory above the marker horizon, and overestimates were even greater for shorter surface cores.