Evaluating the Effectiveness of Agricultural Management Practices under Climate Change for Water Quality Improvement in a Rural Agricultural Watershed of Oklahoma, USA
Abstract
One of the main causes of water quality impairment in the United States is human induced Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution through intensive agriculture. Fort Cobb Reservoir (FCR) watershed located in west-central Oklahoma, United States is a rural agricultural catchment with known issues of NPS pollution including suspended solids, siltation, nutrients, and pesticides. The FCR watershed with an area of 813 km2 includes one major lake fed by four tributaries. Recently, several Best Management Practices (BMPs) have been implemented in the watershed (such as no-tillage and cropland to grassland conversion) to improve water quality. In this study we aim to estimate the effectiveness of different BMPs in improving watershed health under future climate projections. We employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to develop the hydrological model of the FCR watershed. The watershed was delineated using the 10 m USGS Digital Elevation Model and divided into 43 sub-basins with an average area of 8 km2 (min. 0.2 km2 ̶ max. 28 km2). Through a combination of Soil Survey Geographic Database- SSURGO soil data, the US Department of Agriculture crop layer and the slope information, the watershed was further divided into 1,217 hydrologic response units. The historical climate pattern in the watershed was represented by two different weather stations. The model was calibrated (1991 ̶ 2000) and validated (2001 ̶ 2010) against the monthly USGS observations of streamflow recorded at the watershed outlet using three statistical matrices: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and percentage bias (PB). Model parametrization resulted into satisfactory values of R2 (0.56) and NS (0.56) in calibration period and an excellent model performance (R2 = 0.75; NS = 0.75; PB = <1) in validation period. We have selected 19 BMPs to estimate their efficacy in terms of water and sediment yields under a combination of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 Global Climate Model projections and two concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) downscaled to the FCR watershed. The model results provide precise information for stakeholders to prioritize ecologically sound and economically feasible BMPs that are capable of mitigating future climate change impacts at the watershed scale.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.H33L..08R
- Keywords:
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- 1847 Modeling;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1871 Surface water quality;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1879 Watershed;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGY