The Effects of a Changing Climate and Urbanisation on River Flows in the Thames Basin, UK - a Hydrological Modelling Approach
Abstract
The UK population is set to increase by 16% by 2035; it is therefore increasingly important to understand the impact this may have on urban populations, and in turn how this will affect river flow regimes and water quality in urban areas. A growing population is likely to lead to an increase in urban land use and impervious surfaces, the implications of which are not yet fully understood for issues such as future flood risk. The aim of this paper is to develop a greater understanding of the impacts of both an increasing population and urban extent in the context of a changing climate, and to assess the effect these may have on urban streamflow regimes and water security in the future. Flows are modelled for selected catchments in the Thames basin using URBMOD, a lumped rainfall runoff model that is able to represent both pervious and impervious surfaces, reducing infiltration in catchments where there is a greater urban extent. The model uses daily catchment average rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from gridded data, and is calibrated against long-term river flow records. Historic satellite imagery is used to train cellular automata land use models, which are then applied under different scenarios of urban development up to 2035. These changes in land use are combined with a range of climate change scenarios to give an indication of how urban flow regimes may be altered in the Thames basin over the next 20 years. Results suggest an intensification of the hydrological regime in the majority of catchments, with increases in high flow magnitudes (Q10) of up to 5%. The trend for low flows (Q90) is less clear, with some catchments displaying reductions of around 4%, whilst others show slight increased flows. We identify the main drivers behind these changes, from which the fine-scale impacts of urbanisation on water resources can be better understood. Research findings are being used to inform a regional-scale model, coupling water quantity and quality and providing insight to urban planners and stakeholders on the future urban hydrological regime in the Thames basin. Similar approaches are being used to assess impacts of anthropogenic drivers on water resources in the Cauvery basin in India, whereby the applicability of the model under very different climate and urban morphology will be tested.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.H13D1404M
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1813 Eco-hydrology;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1871 Surface water quality;
- HYDROLOGY