Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in GFDL fvGFS
Abstract
A new global model, fvGFS, was built using the GFDL nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core (FV3) with operational physical parameterizations from the National Center for Environmental Prediction's Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS). The FV3 has been selected for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) due to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. This modern dynamical core brings a great opportunity for the unification of weather and climate prediction systems. The performance of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in the 13-km fvGFS is investigated based on 74+ cases of 10-day forecasts in 2015 which have shown a good forecast skill on the Anomaly Correlation Coefficients (ACCs) of 500-hPa height. Track and intensity errors of TCs are compared to those in the operational GFS model which uses same physical parameterizations. The TC intensity in fvGFS is globally outperformed. The forecast skill of TC track is significantly better in fvGFS over the East and West Pacific Ocean. More forecast cases are on-going to improve the statistical significance for Atlantic basin. The TC structures in the model will also be evaluated by comparing to observational data, in particular in the structure of TCs relative to the wind shear.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFM.A52E..03C
- Keywords:
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- 3315 Data assimilation;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3360 Remote sensing;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3372 Tropical cyclones;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS