False Alarm Rate in Predicting the Longitudinal Dependence of SEP Intensity
Abstract
Richardson et al. (Solar Physics, 2014, 289:8) studied the longitudinal dependence of >25 MeV solar proton events observed by multiple spacecraft from December 2009 -December 2012, together with their solar sources. Gaussian fits to the peak SEP intensity observed by multiple spacecraft versus the connection angle (phi) were combined together with the correlation of the peak intensity with the associated CME speed V, leading to an equation for the 14 - 24 MeV proton intensity: I (phi) (MeV s cm2 sr)?1 = 0.013 exp(0.0036V ?phi^2/2σ^2). In this work we apply this equation to approximately 100 CMEs which have been associated with flares from 2010-2015 in the DONKI database which consists of CME measurements performed real-time by CCMC/SWRC (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/). We compare the predicted SEP intensities with those observed and examine the false alarm rate and whether radio bursts are a useful discriminator to reduce false alarms.
- Publication:
-
Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2015)
- Pub Date:
- July 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015shin.confE.165M