Forecasting ionospheric space weather with applications to satellite drag and radio wave communications and scintillation
Abstract
The development of quantitative models that describe physical processes from the solar corona to the Earth’s upper atmosphere opens the possibility of numerical space weather prediction with a lead-time of a few days. Forecasting solar wind-driven variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere poses especially stringent tests of our scientific understanding and modeling capabilities, in particular of coupling processes to regions above and below. We will describe our work with community models to develop upper atmosphere forecasts starting with the solar wind driver. A number of phenomena are relevant, including high latitude energy deposition, its impact on global thermospheric circulation patterns and composition, and global electrodynamics. Improved scientific understanding of this sun to Earth interaction ultimately leads to practical benefits. We will focus on two ways the upper atmosphere affects life on Earth: by changing satellite orbits, and by interfering with long-range radio communications. Challenges in forecasting these impacts will be addressed, with a particular emphasis on the physical bases for the impacts, and how they connect upstream to the sun and the heliosphere.
- Publication:
-
AAS/AGU Triennial Earth-Sun Summit
- Pub Date:
- April 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015TESS....111202M