Uncertainties Associated to Near Real-Time Synoptic Magnetic maps and Implications for Solar Wind Models
Abstract
Beginning with May 2006 data, the National Solar Observatory is providing uncertainty (spatial-variance) maps to accompany its database of magnetic flux synoptic charts. Early studies using few selected integral Carrington rotation maps have shown the impact of these uncertainty maps on the outcome numerical models of the coronal magnetic field and the solar wind (e.g., Bertello et al. 2014, Solar Physics, 289 (7), 2419). Here we discuss the evolution of solar wind parameters at Earth computed from the WSA-ENLIL model using the more suitable near real-time magnetic flux synoptic charts and their corresponding uncertainty maps. We investigated the short-term variations in these parameters during periods of low and high levels of solar activity to determine the predictive capabilities of these maps at different phases of the solar cycle. Our preliminary analysis based on integral synoptic maps suggests that during the period of low solar activity the short-term variations in solar wind parameters are within the scatter of the ensemble modeling. When the activity is high, the short-term variations in the observed parameters are larger than the scatter from the modeling. The results of this investigation will help to get a better understanding about some aspects of existing models of the solar wind that may require further improvements.
- Publication:
-
AAS/AGU Triennial Earth-Sun Summit
- Pub Date:
- April 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015TESS....111003B