Quantifying the Effects of Volcanic Aerosols on Lower Tropospheric Temperature
Abstract
We present a statistical methodology to quantify the impact of volcanic activity on climate data. We focus on volcanic aerosol forcing over the period 1979 to 2013 and examine three cases of volcanic activity: (1) No volcanic activity; (2) El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions only; and (3) late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. Using a Bayesian framework, we jointly estimate the trend, El Ni∼no/Southern Oscillation, and volcanic signal in the observed and climate model simulation of tropospheric temperature. Our analysis clearly illustrates the effects of volcanic activity on the temperature of the lower troposphere.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2015
- Bibcode:
- 2015AGUFM.A21E0198B
- Keywords:
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- 3311 Clouds and aerosols;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3336 Numerical approximations and analyses;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3337 Global climate models;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3355 Regional modeling;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES