Comparing Two Different Methods to Evaluate Convariance-Matrix of Debris Orbit State in Collision Probability Estimation
Abstract
The evaluation of convariance-matrix is an inevitable step when estimating collision probability based on the theory. Generally, there are two different methods to compute convariance-matrix. One is so-called Tracking-Delta-Fitting method, first introduced when estimating the collision probability using TLE catalogue data, in which convariance-matrix is evaluated by fitting series of differences between propagated orbits of formal data and updated orbit data. In the second method, convariance-matrix is evaluated in the process of orbit determination. Both of the methods has there difficulties when introduced in collision probability estimation. In the first method, the value of convariance-matrix is evaluated based only on historical orbit data, ignoring information of latest orbit determination. As a result, the accuracy of the method strongly depends on the stability of convariance-matrix of latest updated orbit. In the second method, the evaluation of convariance-matrix is acceptable when the determined orbit satisfies weighted-least-square estimation, depending on the accuracy of observation error convariance, which is hard to obtain in real application, evaluated by analyzing the residuals of orbit determination in our research. In this paper we provided numerical tests to compare these two methods. A simulation of cataloguing objects in LEO, MEO and GEO regions has been carried out for a time span of 3 months. The influence of orbit maneuver has been included in GEO objects cataloguing simulation. For LEO objects cataloguing, the effect of atmospheric density variation has also been considered. At the end of the paper accuracies of evaluated convariance-matrix and estimated collision probability have been tested and compared.
- Publication:
-
40th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2014
- Bibcode:
- 2014cosp...40E.518C