Solar Flare Forecasting: a "State of the Field" Report for Researchers
Abstract
It can be argued that the most stringent test of understanding a deterministic system is to be able to forecast an outcome based on observable particulars. It can also be argued that (1) solar flares may not be deterministic , and even if they were, our present understanding is nowhere close to being able to predict the time and location of a solar flare with any certainty. Still, solar flare prediction is a needed component of our national space weather infrastructure, and many groups around the world are investigating ways to improve forecasting methods, especially in light of new observational data available, such as from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We present a (very) brief report of the "state of the field", summarizing insights gained from workshops (held in 2009 and 2013) aimed at head-to-head comparisons of flare forecasting methods in specific contexts. In summary, today's methods combine sophisticated data analysis with statistical or computer-learning algorithms generally result in probabilistic forecasts. It is unclear whether any of the presently developed methods clearly outperforms the others, as measured using standard skill scores applied to the careful comparisons that participating researchers engaged in at the workshops. However, it is also clear that new insights into flare triggering mechanisms, especially as afforded by modern analysis of high-cadence, high-quality data such as from SDO, have yet to be fully exploited. Funding for the workshops and subsequent analysis was provided by NASA/Living with a Star contract NNH09CE72C and NASA/Guest Investigator contract NNH12CG10C.
- Publication:
-
AAS/Solar Physics Division Abstracts #44
- Pub Date:
- July 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013SPD....44...82L