A comparison of high-resolution pollen-inferred climate data from central Minnesota, USA, to 19th century US military fort climate data and tree-ring inferred climate reconstructions
Abstract
A vital component of paleoclimatology is the validation of paleoclimatological reconstructions. Unfortunately, there is scant instrumental data prior to the 20th century available for this. Hence, typically, we can only do long-term validation using other proxy-inferred climate reconstructions. Minnesota, USA, with its long military fort climate records beginning in 1820 and early dense network of climate stations, offers a rare opportunity for proxy validation. We compare a high-resolution (4-year), millennium-scale, pollen-inferred paleoclimate record derived from varved Lake Mina in central Minnesota to early military fort records and dendroclimatological records. When inferring a paleoclimate record from a pollen record, we rely upon the pollen-climate relationship being constant in time. However, massive human impacts have significantly altered vegetation; and the relationship between modern instrumental climate data and the modern pollen rain becomes altered from what it was in the past. In the Midwest, selective logging, fire suppression, deforestation and agriculture have strongly influenced the modern pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-1800s. We assess the signal distortion introduced by using the conventional method of modern post-settlement pollen and climate calibration sets to infer climate at Lake Mina from pre-settlement pollen data. Our first February and May temperature reconstructions are based on a pollen dataset contemporaneous with early settlement to which corresponding climate data from the earliest instrumental records has been added to produce a 'pre-settlement' calibration set. The second February and May temperature reconstructions are based on a conventional 'modern' pollen-climate dataset from core-top pollen samples and modern climate normals. The temperature reconstructions are then compared to the earliest instrumental records from Fort Snelling, Minnesota, and it is shown that the reconstructions based on the pre-settlement calibration set give much more credible reconstructions. We then compare the temperature reconstructions based upon the two calibration sets for AD 1116-2002. Significant signal flattening and bias exist when using the conventional modern pollen-climate calibration set rather than the pre-settlement pollen-climate calibration set, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age monthly mean temperatures of 0.5-1.5 oC. Therefore, regional warming from anthropogenic global warming is significantly underestimated when using the conventional method of building pollen-climate calibration sets. We also compare the Lake Mina pollen-inferred effective moisture record to early 19th century climate data and to a four-century tree-ring inferred moisture reconstruction based upon sites in Minnesota and the Dakotas. This comparison shows that regional tree-ring reconstructions are biased towards dry conditions and record wet periods poorly relative to high-resolution pollen reconstructions, giving a false impression of regional aridity. It also suggests that varve chronologies should be based upon cross-dating to ensure a more accurate chronology.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMPP51A1930S
- Keywords:
-
- 4914 PALEOCEANOGRAPHY Continental climate records;
- 4952 PALEOCEANOGRAPHY Palynology;
- 4994 PALEOCEANOGRAPHY Instruments and techniques;
- 4920 PALEOCEANOGRAPHY Dendrochronology