The Timing of Arctic Sea Ice Advance and Retreat as an Indicator of Ice-Dependent Marine Mammal Habitat
Abstract
The Arctic is widely recognized as the front line of climate change. Arctic air temperature is rising at twice the global average rate, and the sea-ice cover is shrinking and thinning, with total disappearance of summer sea ice projected to occur in a matter of decades. Arctic marine mammals such as polar bears, seals, walruses, belugas, narwhals, and bowhead whales depend on the sea-ice cover as an integral part of their existence. While the downward trend in sea-ice extent in a given month is an often-used metric for quantifying physical changes in the ice cover, it is not the most relevant measure for characterizing changes in the sea-ice habitat of marine mammals. Species that depend on sea ice are behaviorally tied to the annual retreat of sea ice in the spring and advance in the fall. Changes in the timing of the spring retreat and the fall advance are more relevant to Arctic marine species than changes in the areal sea-ice coverage in a particular month of the year. Many ecologically important regions of the Arctic are essentially ice-covered in winter and ice-free in summer, and will probably remain so for a long time into the future. But the dates of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall are key indicators of climate change for ice-dependent marine mammals. We use daily sea-ice concentration data derived from satellite passive microwave sensors to calculate the dates of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall in 12 regions of the Arctic for each year from 1979 through 2013. The regions include the peripheral seas around the Arctic Ocean (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, Kara, Barents), the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and the marginal seas (Okhotsk, Bering, East Greenland, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay). We find that in 11 of the 12 regions (all except the Bering Sea), sea ice is retreating earlier in spring and advancing later in fall. Rates of spring retreat range from -5 to -8 days/decade, and rates of fall advance range from +5 to +9 days/decade, with steeper trends in the Barents Sea. Thus the season of sparse sea-ice coverage is lengthening by about 2 weeks/decade, or 6 weeks over the period of record. The trends in all 11 regions are statistically significant. The dates of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall are negatively correlated: an early spring retreat tends to be followed by a late fall advance, and vice-versa. This is a manifestation of the ice-albedo feedback: with an early sea-ice retreat, the ocean has more time to absorb heat from the sun. The extra heat is stored in the upper ocean through the summer, and must be released to the atmosphere in the fall before sea ice can begin to form, thus delaying fall freeze-up. This relationship gives some predictive power to the date of fall sea-ice advance, given the date of spring retreat. Changes have been reported in the seasonal distribution of polar bears, walruses, seals, and whales in the Arctic. We are developing metrics for potential use by the U.S. National Climate Assessment based on the timing of sea-ice advance and retreat, to be used as indicators of ice-dependent marine mammal habitat. Future work will examine connections between the phenology of Arctic marine mammals and the sea-ice indicators.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFMIN11C1538S
- Keywords:
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- 0750 CRYOSPHERE Sea ice;
- 0758 CRYOSPHERE Remote sensing