Decomposing Uncertainty in Climate, Socioeconomics and Technological Change for a Decision to Impose Aggressive Building Energy Standards across the United States

This analysis presents quantification and decomposition of key sources of uncertainty associated with state-level decisions on whether to impose aggressive building energy standards. The research compares uncertainty in future climate model projections, national and international emissions policy, population and economic growth, and technology cost and performance across several states and focuses on three decision criteria--energy savings, savings in greenhouse gas emissions, and costs of the standards. The research utilizes a version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model that has been regionalized to represent energy demand and supply within each of the 50 U.S. states. A Monte Carlo sampling approach provides 12,000 GCAM runs that are post-processed to provide a rigorous comparison of the relative importance of the modeled sources of uncertainty at the state level when aggressive standards are imposed and identifies the key 'game changers.'