The dynamic nature of relative sea level in Southeast Asia: tectonic effects and human impacts (Invited)
Abstract
Tectonic changes can have significant effects on crustal deformation, the geoid, and relative sea level (RSL). Indeed, the tectonic impacts on RSL in some regions can be greater than those predicted as a result of climate change. In the case of earthquakes, these changes can occur suddenly, as coastlines uplift or subside by up to many meters. The changes can also occur over many decades as a result of interseismic or postseismic processes, or periodically in the form of transient slow-slip events. Although these effects are (mostly) recovered elastically over the course of the earthquake cycle, they are occurring in the context of ever-increasing populations living along affected coastlines, particularly the case in areas such as SE Asia. The societal effects of these tectonic-induced sea-level changes are therefore becoming increasingly significant, and important to consider in future projections for sea-level change. Additionally, tide-gauge and gravity measurements made in tectonically active areas cannot be interpreted without consideration and modeling of the tectonic setting. These facts highlight the need for accurate geodetic measurements of land-height change. Along the Sumatra subduction zone, a series of great earthquakes have occurred over the last decade, along with numerous moderate and smaller earthquakes. These, and their ensuing postseismic deformation, have reshaped regional coastlines. We will show visualization of land height changes using a decade of Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr) data, and related tectonic models, that demonstrate dramatically the ups and downs of land elevation close to the earthquake sources. Vertical coseismic displacements as large as ~2.9 m have been recorded by the SuGAr (an uplift at Nias, during the 2005 Mw 8.6 earthquake), and vertical postseismic rates on the order of tens of mm/yr or greater (e.g., in northern Aceh, one station has been uplifting at a rate of ~34 mm/yr since the 2004 Mw 9.2 earthquake, while in southern Simeulue a station has been subsiding, on average, by ~39 mm/yr since 2005, with higher rates immediately after the earthquake). Photos and stories from people in affected communities bring life to these coastline changes. Further afield, viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle causes widespread regional changes. For example, postseismic deformation following the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has caused subsidence of 20-30 mm/yr along the Thai coastline. This subsidence - and therefore relative sea-level rise - will continue for many years to come. One question this raises is the degree to which countries close to tectonic plate boundaries should consider tectonic effects in their planning for future sea-level change. For example, in the event of an earthquake occurring on the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust (an event which has been forecast based on paleogeodetic data), Singapore could face up to 15 cm of subsidence in the decades following the earthquake.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFM.G41C..05H
- Keywords:
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- 1209 GEODESY AND GRAVITY Tectonic deformation;
- 1223 GEODESY AND GRAVITY Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions;
- 1242 GEODESY AND GRAVITY Seismic cycle related deformations;
- 4556 OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL Sea level: variations and mean