Future High Altitude Climate Change Over the Karakoram

Climate change at high altitudes is a complex problem that has dramatic consequences on the quality of life for many regions of the world. Increasing temperatures are forecast but so is increasing precipitation. Alpine glaciers rely on accumulation and are the basis for much of the world's freshwater resources. To predict the possible fate of our world's alpine glaciers requires knowledge of potential climate change as well as the detailed interactions between glaciers and their environment. Applications of modeling techniques involving both global and regional models will be presented with a focus on the Karakoram region over the next century using a future climate simulation forced by intermediate carbon dioxide emissions. Himalayan glaciers are influenced by the monsoon as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, both of which change in the predicted future climate. Results indicate that an initial gain in mass balance for high altitude glaciers through enhanced snowfall will be overrun by the temperature increase within the next six decades, suggesting that only ice masses at the highest elevations will have a positive climatic mass balance by the end of this century.