Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Using Along-Track and Cross-Track Forecast Errors in the Western North Pacific
Abstract
This study investigates track forecast errors using the along-track and cross-track components of the estimated Tropical Cyclone (TC)'s motion. Along-track error (ATE) gives an indicator of whether a forecast of TC movement is too slow or fast and the cross-track error (CTE) is associated with errors in the TC's direction of motion. We used the operational forecast results from NTC/KMA, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center/JMA, Joint Typhoon Warning Center and track forecasts from operational models for 3 years (2010~2012) in the western North Pacific. This study presents that analyzing along-track and cross-track forecast errors gives useful information for verification of TC track forecast, as well as the DPE. The results show that quite different ATE, CTE can be deduced even though the two cases have similar direct position error (DPE). ATE and CTE of most cases have negative tendency. These results imply that TC track forecast were biased to the left-of-track, and had a slow tendency in the western North Pacific. And this study will include detailed analysis and the cause of these tendencies.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2013
- Bibcode:
- 2013AGUFM.A23E0287S
- Keywords:
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- 4315 NATURAL HAZARDS Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction