Estimating the Error in Statistical HAMR Object Populations Resulting from Simplified Radiation Pressure Modeling
Abstract
The high-area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) object population in ESA's MASTER-2009 software (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) is dominated by Multi-Layer Insulation debris at large sizes. The underlying model employs two independent mechanisms whereby Multi-Layer Insulation debris is created. These mechanisms are fragmentation events on the one hand and a deterioration process leading to the continuous release of larger objects on the other hand. All debris source models used to create the MASTER debris population rely on a semi-analytical propagator to model the major secular and long periodic orbit perturbations. The orbit parameters of HAMR objects are highly susceptive to radiation pressure effects which can result in fast secular and periodic changes for area-to-mass ratios above about 1 square meter per kilogram. The implementation of radiation pressure in this propagator is limited to the effects of solar irradiation on a spherical object and using a cylindrical Earth shadow. The current paper discusses the applicability of such a simplified theory to large statistical HAMR object populations where the main objective is not to predict the exact future location of a single object but rather to give a correct representation of the overall distribution of all HAMR objects.
The basis for the current study is given by a numerical propagator which is supported by published observation results. Initially, the effects of object orientation, Earth albedo and thermal radiation on the orbit evolution are discussed. Results from published observations and simulation results give insight into the validity of the implemented model. Fundamental differences between the orbit prediction of this refined numerical propagator and the semi-analytical propagator are looked at with a view towards large statistical populations. To this end, a plausible, statistical, population of HAMR objects is propagated over an extended time period using both propagation schemes and the differences between the results are analyzed. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible errors in statistical populations resulting from the use of a simplified radiation pressure model and a semi-analytical solution.- Publication:
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Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference
- Pub Date:
- September 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012amos.confE..12F