USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula
Abstract
The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and inform decision makers. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario is organized by a coordinating committee with several working groups, including Earthquake Source, Paleotsunami/Geology Field Work, Tsunami Modeling, Engineering and Physical Impacts, Ecological Impacts, Emergency Management and Education, Social Vulnerability, Economic and Business Impacts, and Policy. In addition, the tsunami scenario process is being assessed and evaluated by researchers from the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The source event, defined by the USGS' Tsunami Source Working Group, is an earthquake similar to the 2011 Tohoku event, but set in the Semidi subduction sector, between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands off the Pacific coast of the Alaska Peninsula. The Semidi sector is probably late in its earthquake cycle and comparisons of the geology and tectonic settings between Tohoku and the Semidi sector suggest that this location is appropriate. Tsunami modeling and inundation results have been generated for many areas along the California coast and elsewhere, including current velocity modeling for the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and San Diego, and Ventura Harbor. Work on impacts to Alaska and Hawaii will follow. Note: Costas Synolakis (USC) is also an author of this abstract.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMNH33A1639R
- Keywords:
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- 4564 OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL / Tsunamis and storm surges;
- 4338 NATURAL HAZARDS / Disaster policy;
- 4339 NATURAL HAZARDS / Disaster mitigation;
- 4343 NATURAL HAZARDS / Preparedness and planning