Impacts of future climate changes on the hydrology of major rivers in the Tibetan Plateau
Abstract
Major Asian rivers including Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze originate from the Tibetan Plateau (TP). These rivers support billions of people downstream, and the TP is therefore considered as the water tower of Asia. Changes of climate factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) may have substantial impacts on the hydrological cycle in the TP. Therefore, quantifying the potential impacts of future climate changes over the TP is essential to assist policy-makers and water managers in adopting strategies reflecting the state of scientific understanding of the likelihood. In this work, temperature and precipitation projected by 20 general circulation models (GCMs) in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from emission scenarios rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5 were used to characterize the potential climate changes over the TP for 2013-2065. Outputs from the 20 GCMs were downscaled by using the delta method, and were used to force a land surface hydrology model. The hydrology model was applied to investigate the potential impacts of climate changes on the hydrology of upstream of six major river basins in the TP -the Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Brahmaputra, and Indus. Precipitation and streamflow regimes vary among the river basins in the TP. The investigation of climate change impacts was focused on the precipitation-dominated and melting water-dominated river basins.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMGC51D1237S
- Keywords:
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- 0720 CRYOSPHERE / Glaciers;
- 1626 GLOBAL CHANGE / Global climate models;
- 1655 GLOBAL CHANGE / Water cycles;
- 1807 HYDROLOGY / Climate impacts