The role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the changes of the climatic characteristics of troposphere
Abstract
The main points of the model of the solar activity effect on the Earth climatic system are presented. The key concept of the model is heliogeophysical disturbance effect on the Earth climatic system parameters, which control energy flux, going from the Earth to the space, in high-latitude areas. The model is based on the physical mechanism of heliogeophysical factors' influence on climatic characteristics and atmospheric circulation in the high-latitude troposphere through the atmospheric electricity. In accordance with this mechanism, the at-mospheric electricity parameters in the high latitudes depend on the solar activity; at the same time, they influence the altitude distribution of charged condensation nuclei in the tropo-sphere, as well as the cloudiness formation and radiation balance and atmospheric circulation. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and CMAP data were used to analyze particularities and regularities of long-term variations in amount of precipitation in 1950-2007. Global decrease in amount of precipitation was found to dominate till late 1990s. It started increasing only 10 years ago. Peculiarities of distribution and long-term variations in amount of precipitation in different latitudes and longitudes were also considered. Correlation analysis of connection between the amount of precipitation and the geomagnetic activity and atmospheric circulation was carried out. The connection was found out to depend on a season. Cold periods in the northern hemisphere were characterized by a direct relationship between the geomagnetic activity and amount of precipitation in high latitudes, whereas a negative relationship was observed in sube-quatorial latitudes. In the framework of the model considered, the analysis results are presented and discussed of regularities of variations in geomagnetic activity and troposphere thermobaric characteristics for 1900-2007. It is showed that a continuous increase of the Earth climatic system heat content has been observed from 1910 till now. Under the model, we made analysis of regularities, which underlie variations of geomagnetic activity and troposphere thermobaric characteristics. These results and changes of the global circulation in the atmosphere and ocean allow the conclusion that the warming observed in the 20th century can be mostly explained by variations of the solar activity level. The surface temperature anomalies in 1940-1975 and the World Ocean heat content changes result from a response peculiarity of thermal and dynamic regimes of the World Ocean and atmosphere to changes of processes in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. These changes are associated with the warming in polar areas in the early 20th century. The main determining factors of the process are changes in the Arctic Ocean's frost mass and north rivers' outflows, which regulate the North Atlantic salinity, thermohaline circulation characteristics and atmosphere-ocean energy exchange. Scenario for changes in the Earth atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean in the last century is presented on the basis of the model of the solar activity effect on the troposphere circulation.
- Publication:
-
38th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010cosp...38..140Z