Understanding Earthquake Hazard & Disaster in Himalaya - A Perspective on Earthquake Forecast in Himalayan Region of South Central Tibet
Abstract
It is not only the basic understanding of the phenomenon of earthquake, its resistance offered by the designed structure, but the understanding of the socio-economic factors, engineering properties of the indigenous materials, local skill and technology transfer models are also of vital importance. It is important that the engineering aspects of mitigation should be made a part of public policy documents. Earthquakes, therefore, are and were thought of as one of the worst enemies of mankind. Due to the very nature of release of energy, damage is evident which, however, will not culminate in a disaster unless it strikes a populated area. The word mitigation may be defined as the reduction in severity of something. The Earthquake disaster mitigation, therefore, implies that such measures may be taken which help reduce severity of damage caused by earthquake to life, property and environment. While “earthquake disaster mitigation” usually refers primarily to interventions to strengthen the built environment, and “earthquake protection” is now considered to include human, social and administrative aspects of reducing earthquake effects. It should, however, be noted that reduction of earthquake hazards through prediction is considered to be the one of the effective measures, and much effort is spent on prediction strategies. While earthquake prediction does not guarantee safety and even if predicted correctly the damage to life and property on such a large scale warrants the use of other aspects of mitigation. While earthquake prediction may be of some help, mitigation remains the main focus of attention of the civil society. Present study suggests that anomalous seismic activity/ earthquake swarm existed prior to the medium size earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. The mainshocks were preceded by the quiescence period which is an indication for the occurrence of future seismic activity. In all the cases, the identified episodes of anomalous seismic activity were characterized by an extremely high annual earthquake frequency as compared to the preceding normal and the following gap episodes, and is the characteristics of the events in such an episode is causally related with the magnitude and the time of occurrence of the forthcoming earthquake. It is observed here that for the shorter duration of the preparatory time period, there will be the smaller mainshock, and vice-versa. The Western Nepal and the adjoining Tibet region are potential for the future medium size earthquakes. Accordingly, it has been estimated here that an earthquake with M 6.5 ± 0.5 may occur at any time from now onwards till December 2011 in the Western Nepal within an area bounded by 29.3°-30.5° N and 81.2°-81.9° E, in the focal depth range 10 -30 km.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFMNH11A1104S
- Keywords:
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- 7223 SEISMOLOGY / Earthquake interaction;
- forecasting;
- and prediction;
- 7230 SEISMOLOGY / Seismicity and tectonics