Uncertainty Quantification for Uranium Migration at the Hanford 300 Area
Abstract
Reactive flow and transport modeling is being employed to simulate uranium migration within the Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site at the Hanford 300 Area. This modeling effort considers uncertainty within the underlying conceptual model including hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneity in the aquifer, geochemical process models (equilibrium vs. multirate kinetic surface complexation), and flow boundary conditions (choice of monitoring wells and strategy for mapping head to model boundary). Uncertainty arising from imprecise conceptual models and parameters is quantified within a Monte-Carlo framework for uranium concentration and mass flux within the IFRC site. Due to the large computational demand (e.g. thousands of realizations, each composed of millions of unknowns and requiring a ~4.5 hour simulation time), this work would not be possible without high-performance computing. To this end, the massively parallel PFLOTRAN simulator provides the efficient scalability and multi-realization simulation capability necessary to complete this analysis with reasonable turnaround. Results from this analysis clearly demonstrate the need for uncertainty quantification at the Hanford 300 Area IFRC site.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFM.H53E1090H
- Keywords:
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- 1009 GEOCHEMISTRY / Geochemical modeling;
- 1805 HYDROLOGY / Computational hydrology;
- 1832 HYDROLOGY / Groundwater transport;
- 1869 HYDROLOGY / Stochastic hydrology