Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on North American Lake-Ice Phenology and Composition
Abstract
The formation and breakup of ice are important seasonal events in mid- to high-latitude lakes. The timing of these events, ice phenology, and the ice cover composition are sensitive to the characteristics of individual water bodies and to broader-scale weather patterns and climate variability. This study demonstrate that climate change in the form of global warming and increased precipitation has the potential to change ice cover duration and composition over high latitude lakes using the one dimensional processes based Lake thermo- and phytoplankton dynamics model (MyLake) with daily gridded data of atmospheric variables derived from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4.2 - A2) over the cold regions of North America. Analysis of the simulation results for the baseline (1961 - 1990) and future (2041 -2070) time periods shows a reduction of lake ice thickness and ice-cover duration as a result of later freez-up and earlier break-up of lake ice. The study also reveals spatially dependant increase or decrease in snow-ice formation corresponding to the future climate scenario and the magnitude of precipitation and altitudes are found to have a more significant influence on lake-ice composition than the latitudinal effects.
- Publication:
-
AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUSMGC13A..02D
- Keywords:
-
- 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1621 Cryospheric change (0776);
- 1637 Regional climate change