A First-pass Natural Hazard Risk Assessment for the Asia-Pacific Region
Abstract
The high risk of natural disasters in developing nations has considerable implications for international aid programs. Natural disasters can significantly compromise development progress and reduce the effectiveness of aid investments. In order to better understand the threat that natural disasters may pose to its development aid program, AusAID commissioned Geoscience Australia to conduct a broad natural hazard risk assessment of the Asia-Pacific region. The assessment included earthquake, volcanic eruption, tsunami, cyclone, flood, landslide and wildfire hazards, with particular attention given to countries the Australian Government considered to be of high priority to its development aid program. Geoscience Australia's preliminary natural hazard risk assessment of the region aimed to help AusAID identify countries and areas at high risk from one or more natural hazards. The frequency of a range of sudden-onset natural hazards was estimated and, allowing for data constraints, an evaluation was made of potential disaster impact. Extra emphasis was placed on relatively rare but high-impact events, such as the December 2004 tsunami, which might not be well documented in the historical record. While a detailed risk assessment was well beyond the scope of this study, it was recognized that some understanding of the potential impact of natural disasters could be achieved through the simple means of developing appropriate overlays of population and hazard. For example, given an estimate of the frequency and magnitude (VEI) at which volcanic eruptions in a certain region occur, the populations impacted could be roughly estimated by considering the average population close enough to a volcano to receive a significant impact from ash fall. Our preliminary assessment of natural hazard risk in the Asia-Pacific region highlights the potential for the region to experience a megadisaster affecting millions of people during the coming century. While the scale of such a disaster may seem greater than any recorded so far, we reached this conclusion not only because the Asia-Pacific region is home to intense geological and meteorological activity, but also because of the region's burgeoning population, which has increased more than fivefold during the 20th century. People in the region are increasingly vulnerable because of trends such as rapid urbanisation and their tendency to concentrate in areas especially prone to natural hazards. Because of the threat natural disasters pose to the progress of development, natural hazard risk management will continue to increase in importance in international development policy in the Asia-Pacific region. Our study also demonstrates how the application of very 'broad-brush' science can address important policy issues.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2008
- Bibcode:
- 2008AGUFMPA11A..04C
- Keywords:
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- 0468 Natural hazards;
- 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges;
- 7299 General or miscellaneous;
- 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks