Reply to the comment by M. Lockwood et al. on ``The IDV index: Its derivation and use in inferring long-term variations of the interplanetary magnetic field''
Abstract
From an analysis of geomagnetic and solar wind data, [1999] (hereinafter referred to as LSW99) reported that the solar coronal magnetic field had increased by more than a factor of two during the last century. If true, this would be an important discovery. Recently, [2005] (hereinafter referred to as SC05) reported an analysis based on our newly developed interdiurnal variability (IDV) index of geomagnetic activity which indicated that cycle averages of the solar field varied no more than ∼25% over the same time interval and are now decreasing. Here, we answer the criticisms of [2006] (hereinafter referred to as LRFS06) to our paper. In sum, we find their objections without merit. If our prediction that the next solar cycle will be the smallest in 100 years [, 2005] bears out, this debate may be settled by direct solar wind measurements within the next few years. In the following sections we respond to the various points raised by LRFS06: percentage change, Br versus B, regression technique (including the effect of missing data), and analysis procedure.
- Publication:
-
Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics)
- Pub Date:
- September 2006
- DOI:
- 10.1029/2006JA011678
- Bibcode:
- 2006JGRA..111.9110S
- Keywords:
-
- Solar Physics;
- Astrophysics;
- and Astronomy: Solar and stellar variability (1650);
- and Astronomy: Magnetic fields;
- and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle (2162);
- Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245;
- 4263);
- IMF;
- long-term