Towards Real-Time Automated Prediction of Geo-Magnetic Storms Based on Observations of Source Regions of Halo CMEs
Abstract
Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), originating near disk center, are possible sources of large geomagnetic storms. Our goal is to predict geomagnetic activities automatically and in real time based on the observations of source regions of CMEs. We have achieved the following two steps: (1) We studied the magnetic structure of a number of famous active regions that produced large flares (X5 or larger), and found a close correlation between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear; and magnetic gradient could be even a better proxy to predict where a major flare might occur. Therefore, we can avoid complication of using vector magnetograms to derive magnetic shear. (2) We investigated the relationship between geoeffectiveness and the orientation of magnetic field in source active regions. Based on the flaring neutral lines detected by step (1), we extrapolated the magnetic structure in active region with three-dimensional (3D) numerical models. We started with the potential field model. We attempt to find relationship between the the orientation of magnetic field in the source region and the hourly averaged ACE measurements of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic fields, that is believed to be the indicator of geomagnetic storms.
- Publication:
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AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2005
- Bibcode:
- 2005AGUSMSP23A..01S
- Keywords:
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- 7513 Coronal mass ejections;
- 7524 Magnetic fields