Agricultural Drought Assessment for the Southern United States
Abstract
The water resources systems of the Southern U.S. are increasingly stressed by various demands. This stress is magnified during the periodic droughts that occur in the region, and agriculture is particularly affected by these droughts. Recent public policy in some states has attempted to mitigate the impacts on farmers, but reliable methods of drought assessment and forecasting are needed to allow efficient policy implementation. A methodology is presented to assess the effects of droughts on crop yields, irrigation demands, and the full yield-irrigation relationship. The technique utilizes irrigation optimization algorithms coupled with physiologically based crop models. Ensembles of climatic forcing allow for quantification of the stochastic crop-water production function at specific sites and quantification of the changes in this function in drought periods. Data needs for assessment are discussed as well as sensitivity of the methodology to some input parameters. The technique is applied to case study sites in southwestern Georgia where a new policy to compensate farmers to forego irrigation is in the initial implementation stage. The assessment methodology generates information useful for the binary drought decision mandated by state law, and it suggests potentially beneficial modifications to the current policy.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2002
- Bibcode:
- 2002AGUFM.H12G..05B
- Keywords:
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- 1812 Drought;
- 1842 Irrigation;
- 1884 Water supply;
- 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- 6334 Regional planning