A Stochastic-Dynamic Earthquake Source Model for Strong Motion Prediction: Earthquake Scenarios on the Hayward-Rodgers-Creek Fault System
Abstract
We have developed a stochastic-dynamic earthquake source model that characterizes the variability of source properties as observed in past earthquakes and allows us to calculate near-source ground motions for realistic earthquake scenarios. Our source model starts with a random-field characterization of earthquake slip, consistent with published finite-source rupture models. We generate a pseudo-dynamic rupture model with variable rupture velocity and variable rise time. The procedure, which derives these quantities from the variable slip distribution and simple assumptions of rupture dynamics, has been calibrated against fully dynamic, spontaneous rupture calculations. We use our earthquake-source model to perform strong motion simulations for earthquake scenarios on the Hayward-Rodgers-Creek fault system. This approach provides realistic strong motion synthetic seismograms that can be used to characterize the variability of source effects in the near-field of large earthquakes, and allows a comparison of kinematic and pseudo-dynamic ground motions synthetics with predictions from empirical attenuation relations. The use of a stochastic source description, and output that consists of strong motion time series for a suite of realizations, rather than a single number or model, will merge naturally with the probabilistic approach that is usually taken for seismic hazard analysis.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2001
- Bibcode:
- 2001AGUFM.S31C..11M
- Keywords:
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- 7209 Earthquake dynamics and mechanics;
- 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering;
- 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction