The SAGA Survey. V. Modeling Satellite Systems around Milky Way–Mass Galaxies with Updated UNIVERSEMACHINE

Environment plays a critical role in shaping the assembly of low-mass galaxies. Here, we use the UNIVERSEMACHINE (UM) galaxy–halo connection framework and Data Release 3 of the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey to place dwarf galaxy star formation and quenching into a cosmological context. UM is a data-driven forward model that flexibly parameterizes galaxy star formation rates (SFRs) using only halo mass and assembly history. We add a new quenching model to UM, tailored for galaxies with m _⋆ ≲ 10⁹ M _⊙, and constrain the model down to m _⋆ ≳ 10⁷ M _⊙ using new SAGA observations of 101 satellite systems around Milky Way (MW)–mass hosts and a sample of isolated field galaxies in a similar mass range from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The new best-fit model, "UM-SAGA," reproduces the satellite stellar mass functions, average SFRs, and quenched fractions in SAGA satellites while keeping isolated dwarfs mostly star-forming. The enhanced quenching in satellites relative to isolated field galaxies leads the model to maximally rely on halo assembly to explain the observed environmental quenching. Extrapolating the model down to m _⋆ ∼ 10^6.5 M _⊙ yields a quenched fraction of ≳30% for isolated field galaxies and ≳80% for satellites of MW-mass hosts at this stellar mass. Spectroscopic surveys can soon test this specific prediction to reveal the relative importance of internal feedback, cessation of mass and gas accretion, satellite-specific gas processes, and reionization for the evolution of faint low-mass galaxies.