Signatures of circumbinary disc dynamics in multimessenger population studies of massive black hole binaries

We investigate the effect of the cutting-edge circumbinary disc (CBD) evolution models on massive black hole binary (MBHB) populations and the gravitational wave background (GWB). We show that CBD-driven evolution leaves a tell-tale signature in MBHB populations, by driving binaries towards an equilibrium eccentricity that depends on the binary mass ratio. We find high orbital eccentricities ($e_{\rm b} \sim 0.5$) as MBHBs enter multimessenger observable frequency bands. The CBD-induced eccentricity distribution of MBHB populations in observable bands is independent of the initial eccentricity distribution at binary formation, erasing any memory of eccentricities induced in the large-scale dynamics of merging galaxies. Our results suggest that eccentric MBHBs are the rule rather than the exception in upcoming transient surveys, provided that CBDs regularly form in MBHB systems. We show that the GWB amplitude is sensitive to CBD-driven preferential accretion onto the secondary, resulting in an increase in GWB amplitude $A_{\rm yr^{-1}}$ by over 100 per cent with just 10 per cent Eddington accretion. As we self-consistently allow for binary hardening and softening, we show that CBD-driven orbital expansion does not diminish the GWB amplitude, and instead increases the amplitude by a small amount. We further present detection rates and population statistics of MBHBs with $M_{\rm b} \gtrsim 10^6 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ in Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, showing that most binaries have equal mass ratios and can retain residual eccentricities up to $e_{\rm b} \sim 10^{-3}$ due to CBD-driven evolution.