Inflation in 2022 did not affect congressional voting, but abortion did

Economic theories of voting dominate public understanding of elections in the United States, largely on the basis of cross-sectional evidence that negative (positive) perceptions of the national economy prompt voting against (for) the incumbent party. In this study, we demonstrate why the role of the economy is easily misinterpreted in research on American elections. We provide evidence that, despite severe inflation and grave concerns about deteriorating economic conditions, changing perceptions of the economy did not affect voting shifting from the 2020 to the 2022 US midterm elections. This study demonstrates that views on abortion and the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization directly affected voting in 2022.