What drives the variability in AGN? Explaining the UV-Xray disconnect through propagating fluctuations

Intensive broad-band reverberation mapping campaigns have shown that AGN variability is significantly more complex than expected from disc reverberation of the variable X-ray illumination. The UV/optical variability is highly correlated and lagged, with longer lags at longer wavelengths as predicted, but the observed time-scales are longer than expected. Worse, the UV/optical light curves are not well correlated with the X-rays, which should drive them. Instead, we consider an intrinsically variable accretion disc, where slow mass accretion rate fluctuations are generated in the optical-UV disc, propagating down to modulate intrinsically faster X-ray variability from the central regions. We match our model to Fairall 9, a well-studied AGN with L ~ 0.1L_Edd, where the spectrum is dominated by the UV/EUV. Our model produces light curves where the X-rays and UV have very different fast variability, yet are well correlated on longer time-scales, as observed. It predicts that the intrinsic variability has optical/UV leading the X-rays, but including reverberation of the variable EUV from an inner wind produces a lagged bound-free continuum that matches the observed UV-optical lags. We conclude that optical/UV AGN variability is likely driven by intrinsic fluctuations within the disc, not X-ray reprocessing: the observed longer than expected lags are produced by reverberation of the EUV illuminating a wind, not by X-ray illumination of the disc: the increasing lag with increasing wavelength is produced by the increased contribution of the (constant lag) bound-free continuum to the spectrum, rather than indicating intrinsically larger reverberation distances for longer wavelengths.