Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilotherms, often referred to as "cold-blooded" animals, are sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Climate change, therefore, represents a significant threat to this diverse group of animals. Predicting the effects of temperatures outside the range of previously observed conditions is difficult using observed data alone. We develop an approach to predicting climate change effects on poikilotherm abundance and distributions by combining laboratory-derived information about species' temperature preferences and tolerances with field-based measurements of abundance. Using data from three fish species that differ in temperature preferences, we show that incorporating physiological information into model predictions yields more realistic predictions of local extirpation and changes in abundance under future climate scenarios.