Rational ignorance in the search for extra-terrestrial life

The question "are we alone in the universe?" has been asked through the ages and is beginning to be addressed by deploying spacecraft and advanced observatories capable of detecting biological signatures. Apart from the certainty that life exists on the Earth, there is no clear evidence at the time of writing for extra-terrestrial life (also termed exo-life). Although the sheer number of potentially habitable extrasolar planets in our galaxy alone makes a compelling case for widespread exo-life if taken in isolation, the constraints on the emergence of life imposed by chemistry and biology provide a counterbalance to this optimistic view. In the absence of any clear sign of exo-life and therefore our ignorance about whether it exists or not, the only way forward is to apply scientific knowledge in a rational way to discriminate between different scenarios until such a time that real evidence is forthcoming, if at all. This article reviews the main features of current astrobiological research to speculate on the likelihood of each critical transition in the development of living entities, emphasising the involvement of chemistry and informational macromolecules. It concludes that carbon-based compounds may be widespread on and in exoplanets, but the organisation of these prebiotic molecules into cellular structures with anything like the complexity of the primitive organisms on Earth could be very rare or non-existent. However, if such organisms do arise, the path to multicellularity and the functional organisation required for human capabilities may not be so daunting. Some of the key genetic features required for this development may already be present in primitive cells ready to be activated or repurposed.