Tracking Hidden Magnetospheric Fluctuations in Accretion-powered Pulsars With a Kalman Filter

X-ray flux and pulse period fluctuations in an accretion-powered pulsar convey important information about the disk-magnetosphere interaction. It is shown that simultaneous flux and period measurements can be analysed with a Kalman filter based on the standard magnetocentrifugal accretion torque to generate accurate time-dependent estimates of three hidden state variables, which fluctuate stochastically and cannot be measured directly: the mass accretion rate, the Maxwell stress at the disk-magnetosphere boundary, and the radiative efficiency of accretion onto the stellar surface. The inferred fluctuation statistics carry implications for the physics of hydromagnetic instabilities at the disk-magnetosphere boundary and searches for continuous gravitational radiation from low-mass X-ray binaries.