Pattern and rate in the Plio-Pleistocene evolution of modern human brain size

Fourteen studies of brain size evolution in Plio-Pleistocene hominins published over the past fifty years show substantial long-term increase in endocranial volume (ECV) for the broad lineage leading to modern humans. The median generation-to-generation step rate for a consensus time series of ECV values, h₀ = 0.15 standard deviations per generation, is almost identical to the median step rate observed in modern biological field studies. When specimens are aggregated in a series of 100 k.y. time bins to reflect the precision of their geological ages, temporal scaling identifies four successive phases of stasis and change that are significantly different from random. Phase I from about 3.2 to 2.0 million years before present is an initial phase of relative stasis. Phase II from 2.0 to 1.5 m.y. is a phase of directional brain size increase. Phase III from 1.5 to 0.7 m.y. is a second phase of stasis. Finally, Phase IV from about 0.7 m.y. to 10 k.y. is a second phase of directional increase. The tempo (rate) and the mode (stasis, random, or directional change) of an evolutionary time series are related to each other, and both are related to the time scale appropriate for analysis.