Climate change vulnerability mapping across ecological zones in Delta State, Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

The nature of various ecologies partly determines how vulnerable regions and localities are to climate change. In developing countries, the low level of technological innovations required to adapt effectively and high reliance on nature for livelihood make certain areas more vulnerable than others. The study investigates the vulnerabilities of the three major ecological zones (Lowland rainforest, Freshwater Swamp, and Mangrove Swamp) in Delta State of the Niger Delta Region to climate change. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to analyze exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators. Temperature and rainfall data used as the indicators for exposure were downloaded from NASA's website and UCI CHRS's data portal respectively and spanned from the year 1981 to 2019 for temperature and 2000 to 2019 for rainfall. PCA for sensitivity and adaptive capacity was carried out using thirty (30) sensitivity indicators and thirteen (13) adaptive capacity indicators, which were derived from the administration of 4,000 copies of questionnaire to rural residents of 10 selected Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Delta State. These were used to generate vulnerability scores (Z-scores), which served as measures of vulnerability, for the components - exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results showed that Warri North Local Government Area and Warri Southwest Local Government Area (both located in the Mangrove Swamp ecology) were the most vulnerable in terms of temperature, with Z-Scores of 3.096 and 2.681 respectively. In terms of rainfall, the results indicated that most LGAs located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most exposed to increased rainfall. In terms of sensitivity, Burutu and Patani LGAs located in the Mangrove Swamp and Ndokwa East LGA located in the Freshwater Swamp were the most sensitive to climate change. Burutu and Patani LGAs (which are both in the Mangrove Swamp) had the highest vulnerability based on low adaptive capacity. Overall, Patani and Burutu LGAs (both in the Mangrove Swamp ecological zone) were the most vulnerable to climate change. The study recommends that climate change interventions be delivered across communities in the Niger-Delta Region based on variations of the indicators of vulnerability.