Vulnerability of mining operations across Canada to future climate extremes

As with any other sector of society, climate change will pose significant risks to every stage of mining and mineral processing, from exploration through development to operational and post-closure activities. As of yet, the exact nature of climate change impacts in these stages of mining operations has not been well understood except for some qualitative and hypothetical estimates. Moreover, how can climate change impacts and their assessments be effectively shared with industry operators or managers, and what kind of data and information can the scientific community provide them in order to take actionable adaptation measures that have not yet been explored thoroughly. The study therefore looked at two very specific questions: i) what are the vulnerabilities of mining operations to future climate extremes across Canada? and ii) how can these vulnerabilities be incorporated into better adaptation strategies and planning in the mining industry? The vulnerability assessment considers two climate change emission scenarios (e.g., RCP4.5 and 8.5) and three time periods (e.g., 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s); and examines the impacts on longer (annual, monthly) and shorter duration precipitation patterns such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, annual and seasonal mean temperature changes, number of consecutive dry and wet days, and number of frost days. Results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on shorter duration precipitation across Canada, more so in the prairies and east than in the west. For example, a 100-year IDF curve will change on average 19-55% in the prairies, 18-49% in the east, and 14-35% in the west. Similarly, the number of days with extreme heat will increase by 8-31 days in the prairies, 14-51 days in the east, and 7-10 days in the west. A matrix between likelihood and severity of consequence is derived from the vulnerability assessment for mining operations in order to facilitate a better communication to industry leaders for a timely and effective adaptation.