Scenario Planning as a Tool for Climate Change Adaptation and Uncertainty Management in the Great Lakes Region

As decision makers and practitioners prepare for future impacts of climate change, they rely on climate information that is usable, relevant, and fits decision needs. Climate model projections are one source of information, but users may not be sure which models are best for their particular needs. Moreover, global climate models often contain bias as well as poorly represent local and regional climate and weather patterns. The Great Lakes in particular, are poorly modeled by global climate models, despite lake-atmosphere-land interactions being primary drivers of regional climate.

The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment team (GLISA), a Michigan-based boundary organization, provides climate services to Great Lakes partners and practitioners. GLISA uses climate model projections, along with other sources of information, to create a more robust understanding of plausible future change. Additionally, the uncertainties from climate models are transformed into useful information by integrating them as guidance in qualitative scenario narratives.

We explore GLISA's combined usage of climate information and scenario planning as a tool for climate change adaptation and uncertainty management projects. We begin with a review of three scenario planning cases conducted in the Great Lakes region: Isle Royale National Park; Battle Creek, MI; and Wayne County, NY. In each case, we focus on the methods used by GLISA to convey climate vulnerabilities, risks, and plausible future change, followed by a discussion of scenario results and outcomes. This study aims to contribute its findings to the current state of scenario planning for climate change and explore how boundary organizations such as GLISA may offer improvements to the practice.