Ensemble Modeling of Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration by Chorus Waves: Dependence on Key Input Parameters
Abstract
The ensemble modeling technique has only been embraced by the space weather community for about 20 years, which is a powerful numerical method that can help us understand how the uncertainty propagates in the model, as well as the confidence and range of predicted model outcomes. Quantifying the error distribution and model performance is important to improve space weather predictions. We perform an ensemble of simulations of radiation belt electron acceleration using the quasi-linear approach during the storm on 9 October 2012, when the chorus waves dominated electron acceleration at L = 5.2. By conducting a superposed epoch analysis of 11 similar storms when both multi-MeV electron flux enhancements and chorus wave activities were observed, we improve the input data sampling in terms of both spatiotemporal coverage and extreme case coverage. The comparison between the ensemble simulations and observation allows us to quantify how the uncertainties in the simulated output fluxes are apportioned to inaccuracy in the input parameters. We also estimate the confidence of the simulation performance by calculating the probability density distribution of the simulation error. Our sensitive analysis provides fundamental information for radiation belt model calibration and future accurate radiation belt electron predictions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMSM52A..52H