Forecasting the Various Electron Populations in the Outer Radiation Belt and at GEO

The dynamics of the outer radiation belt are driven by a complex interplay between acceleration and loss mechanisms leading to a broad energy range of energetic electrons. These electron populations in the outer belt are known to present hazards to spacecraft. Source (≈10–100 keV) and seed (≈100–300 keV) electrons can cause surface charging in spacecrafts leading to adverse effects such as instrumentation errors and physical damage. Furthermore, seed electrons act as a "reservoir" population which can be further accelerated to relativistic energies via the interaction with whistler chorus waves that the source population produces. These relativistic (typically > 0.5 MeV) electrons can penetrate through satellite shielding potentially causing internal charging, even leading to satellite loss in extreme cases. In this work, we present our latest advances in the development of predictive models for electron fluxes in a broad energy and L-shell range, which use solely measurements of solar wind parameters. The models can have a variety of applications related to the nowcasting/forecasting of the distribution of electron fluxes. Indicatively, these include providing low-energy boundary conditions for the acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies, forecasting daily electron fluxes, and providing inputs for the prediction of surface and/or internal charging effects on spacecraft.