Space Weather: Complexity science, convergence research, and a risk and resiliency framework

"The 21st century will be the age of complexity." -Stephen Hawking

Space weather is a classic complex system--a system consisting of many interconnected parts whose behavior is more than the sum of its parts; it exhibits emergence.

Complex systems require deep consideration of the relationships between their interacting parts. For the space weather example this might mean understanding the activity of the Sun and space environment, changes in convolved daily weather patterns, behavior of the population in a given area related to the infrastructure threatened by space weather, and the downstream effects from changes to one part of the system on the rest of the interconnected network.

In an age of growing reliance on technology and physical expansion into space, what does a science of space weather look like for a more resilient society? This talk suggests that future progress in understanding space weather depends on a complexity science paradigm.

We first introduce complexity science in the context of Heliophysics and space weather, an introduction generative of new research vistas for our field.

We then illustrate what the complexity paradigm looks like, using space weather effects on the power grid as a demonstrable use case. We will share insights and implications from the NSF Convergence Hub for the Exploration of Space Science (CHESS) project, a successful example of convergence research (addressing planetary-scale challenges by merging innovative ideas, approaches, and technologies from a wide and diverse range of sectors). A follow-on workshop "Simulating Space Weather Extremes: Workshop to assess the preparedness of the US power grid to geomagnetic activity" demonstrated methods for convergence research to define research and development gaps and information flows across the complex space weather system.

Responding to the charge of the session to envision the future of space weather, we conclude by defining a new risk & resilience framework for space weather research that can not only progress space weather science, but also enables space weather to be treated like other natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, floods). A common framework for risks is prerequisite to the ability to understand the compounding effects of risks and give context and create situational awareness to any given risk.