Climate change is increasing the risk of compound flooding by tropical cyclones in New York City
Abstract
Among multiple hazards associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), much of the damage is caused by compound surge and rainfall driven flooding in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a physics-based approach to address the extent to which anthropogenic warming and Sea Level Rising (SLR) may alter the spatial risk of compound flooding from TCs in New York City. We simulate high spatio-temporal rainfall intensity and storm surge height (with SLR incorporated) from a large number of synthetic TCs. The synthetic TCs are downscaled from six CMIP6 climate models under the SSP3 7.0 pathway for the current, middle, and end of the century. Using a 2D numerical hydraulic modeling, we simulate the hydrodynamics of compound surge and rainfall driven flooding in the three climates. A probabilistic risk model then quantifies the contribution of anthropogenic warming and SLR in changing the spatial risk of compound flooding by TCs in the current and future climates. This study emphasizes how vulnerable coastal communities are and should serve as a guide to how they might adapt to increased flooding risk from TCs.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMNH36A..06S