Hierarchical Classification of Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Wind Plasma Properties in Predicting the Peak Intensity of Energetic Storm Particle Events
Abstract
Energetic storm particle (ESP) events are a locally constrained, high-energy particle population associated with the passage of interplanetary shocks at 1 au. The abrupt enhancement of the ions can cause significant increases in the particulate radiation near Earth, which is an important element of space weather. Understanding the importance of the related particle sources and acceleration processes in ESPs is crucial to improving the prediction capabilities of ESP properties such as peak flux intensity, ion composition, and time of arrival.
Using solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and energetic particle measurements from ACE, Wind, STEREO-A&B during solar cycles 23 and 24, we identify >1200 shock-associated ESP events at 1 au. For each event, we derive a comprehensive set of properties that could be related to the production of ESPs. These include IP shock properties (e.g., speed, strength, obliquity) and upstream conditions (e.g., seed populations, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions), among others. We then apply established statistical unsupervised (e.g., clustering) and supervised (e.g., random forests, gradient boosting, and support vector machines) methods on the dataset to examine the feasibility of predicting specific ESP properties. We present results of the hierarchical classification and interpret it in context of ESP measurements at 1 au.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMNG51A..12M