A convergence approach to the drying Great Salt Lake
Abstract
The Great Salt Lake is in a critical state with a record low level having been recorded this year and the exposed lake bed a source of harmful dust impacting air quality in the area surrounding the capital of Utah, Salt Lake City. The lake is a terminal lake in a closed basin, whose only exit is evaporation that depends on climate, lake area and salinity. The lake is shallow and its size (level, volume and area) adjusts to balance, on average, precipitation and streamflow inflows by evaporation. These fluxes are affected by climate, water use, and land cover and land surface changes. Water in the Great Salt Lake basin is highly managed with diversions going to irrigated agriculture and municipal uses. This paper will take a convergence approach to quantify the sensitivity of the lake to inputs and develop the understanding necessary to make scientifically based decisions on management. First we will examine sensitivity to changes in streamflow, precipitation and temperature. Because climate change affects precipitation and temperature, both historic data and projections that estimate warming will be considered. Streamflow is a result of runoff processes, reductions due to both irrigated agriculture and urban water uses, and Land cover changes. We will integrate emerging information on how streamflow may be impacted by forest disturbances, quantified in the Forest Inventory and Analysis records. Streamflow also changes due to urbanization quantified through the National Land Cover Dataset. The OpenET dataset is a satellite-based product that provides high resolution data on actual evapotranspiration, primarily from agricultural water uses, but also other land surfaces. It provides another way to quantify evapotranspiration in the overall water balance. The hydrologic water balance across the basins draining to the lake is spatially heterogeneous and will be quantified using subcatchment boundaries of the National Water Model geospatial fabric. This will frame the problem in a way that allows model outputs to be integrated into the analysis. Overall this study serves as an example and test case for opportunities to address difficult problems such as the drying Great Salt Lake through the understanding that can be produced by the integration of information from multiple sources enabled by advanced cyberinfrastructure
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMIN32A..02T